• Dynamic Modeling COVID-19 for Comparing Containment Strategies in a Pandemic Scenario

    Author(s):
    Min Lu (see profile)
    Date:
    2021
    Item Type:
    Article
    Permanent URL:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.17613/9917-pz03
    Abstract:
    Since instances of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) community spread emerged in the United States, federal and local governments have implemented multiple containment measures. However, in order to satisfy the needs of citizens, the strictest containment measures can be only executed for short period. This article compares two types of containment strategies: a constant containment strategy that could satisfy the needs of citizens for a long period and an adaptive containment strategy whose strict level changes across time. When to implement the strictest measures is also of interest. A prediction model is proposed and a simple tool is developed for policy makers to compare different containment strategies. As an example, a county with 2.8 million population and initial 200 infected cases is considered, where about 0.2\% people are assumed to be dead during the pandemic. Compared with a constant containment strategy, adaptive containment strategies shorten the outbreak length, but executing the strictest measures late, even with stricter overall containment measures, will cause more mortality.
    Metadata:
    xml
    Status:
    Published
    Last Updated:
    2 years ago
    License:
    All Rights Reserved

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